November is feeling more like September across much of the southern and eastern United States, with temperatures running well above average from the central states to the Eastern Seaboard. Unseasonable warmth looks to carry toward Thanksgiving, the lengthy spate of mildness coming on the heels of the Earth’s warmest October on record, according to data from European and Japanese research centers.
The data shows October came in at about 3 degrees (1.7 Celsius) above the long-term average or about 0.7 degrees (0.4 Celsius) above the next-warmest year, and the planet has all but secured its warmest year on record.
Even though November started with a chill across the Lower 48 states — in sharp contrast to Asia, where it has been exceptionally warm — the script has flipped this week.
Tuesday marked a second straight day with plentiful record highs. In Oklahoma, temperatures soared into the mid-90s, the highest ever observed in November. More records are likely Wednesday across the Midwest, lower Appalachians and back toward Texas before the heat shifts to the Interstate 95 corridor on Thursday.
Thereafter, a slight cool-down is expected into the weekend before another warm-up overtakes the Plains into the start of the next workweek. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting a high likelihood of above-average temperatures over much of the central and eastern Lower 48 during the next two weeks.
Records that have fallen so far
Tuesday brought a second day of record warmth, stretching across the southern and central Plains and Mid-South:
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- Hollis, Okla., hit 95 degrees, breaking the Oklahoma record for November and the state’s highest temperature observed so late in the year.
- Childress, Tex., hit 94 degrees, breaking the previous record of 90 set in 1934, and its highest temperature so late in the year.
- Goodland, Kan., hit 87 degrees, breaking the previous record of 82 set in 2020, and its highest temperature so late in the year.
- Springfield, Mo., hit 80, breaking the previous record of 79 set in 1915.
- Chattanooga, Tenn., hit 83, breaking the previous record of 80 set in 2022 and 2005.
On Monday, the heat focused over the Plains and Midwest:
- Lubbock, Tex., hit 88 degrees, breaking the previous record of 85 set in 1975.
- Childress, Tex., hit 91 degrees, breaking the previous record of 87 set in 1945.
- Evansville, Ind., hit 78 degrees, tying the record of 78 set both in 1915 and 1916.
- Little Rock hit 83 degrees, breaking the previous record of 81 set in 1915. The average high temperature is 65 degrees.
- Nashville hit 79 degrees, which also ties a record set in 1915. The average high temperature is also 65 degrees.
What’s next
On Wednesday, the greatest temperature departures from average will shift into the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, as well as into southern interior Texas, where highs could top 90 degrees. Highs will range from 20 to 30 degrees above normal.
Share this articleShareSt. Louis is forecast to break a record with a high in the mid-80s, as is Little Rock with a predicted high in the low 80s. Other cities expected to near record highs include Cincinnati, Nashville, Raleigh and Wichita Falls.
By Thursday, the heat will be primarily relegated to the Mid-Atlantic and interior Southeast.
Record highs may be tied or set in Washington, Richmond, Charlotte and Asheville, among other spots.
Washington is forecast to reach 81 degrees, even though the average is closer to 60. If it hits 80, it would mark the fourth latest in the year on record. Temperatures as warm as mid-80s are expected in Charlottesville, which would demolish the record of 79 there. Charlotte is expected to hit a record-tying 82 degrees.
The overall pattern
The heat is caused by a dome of mid-level high pressure, or warm, sinking air, which has been slowly pushing across the country. That sinking air squashes cloud cover and allows for sunshine, helping temperatures to soar.
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A counterclockwise-spinning surface low-pressure system, meanwhile, is traversing the Great Lakes. That’s helping strengthen southerly winds, bolstering temperatures even more.
Climate connection
Since the start of the year, the United States has had 27,255 instances of weather stations setting calendar day record highs, compared to 19,574 record cold maximum temperatures. That’s a ratio of roughly 1.4 to 1. For overnight lows, the warm to cold record ratio is even more dramatic — 2.5 to 1.
This inequity is even more dramatic for monthly and all-time (for any calendar day) records. Consider there have been a total of 178 all-time record highs in the United States this year, but only eight stations with all-time record cold maximum readings. That’s a ratio of 22 to 1.
If it seems like warm weather makes headlines more often than cold weather, it’s because there’s more of it.
In an unchanging world, we’d expect a roughly even balance of warm and cold temperature records. But in an era earmarked by a swiftly-warming atmosphere because of the burning of oil, coal and gas, there’s no more balance. Earth’s climate is skewed hot, and we see it in the daily numbers.
Jason Samenow contributed to this report.
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